Difference between revisions of "11: Sam Harris - Fighting with Friends"

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'''Eric'''  And yeah, this is, this is... So what I was told about this,  
'''Eric'''  And yeah, this is, this is... So what I was told about this,  


Sam  but I'm just not, I'm not saying that it's not without cost to somebody. It's definitely costing somebody something. Right?  
'''Sam''' But I'm just not, I'm not saying that it's not without cost to somebody. It's definitely costing somebody something. Right?  


Eric  Like the bad people, the people.
'''Eric''' Like the bad people, the people.


Sam No, no, no. Not the bad people, but just, it's, it's like  
'''Sam''' No, no, no. Not the bad people, but just, it's, it's like  


Eric I don't even know how to go into all of the things that are like really funny and wrong about this. Like one of which is, well are you afraid to compete with somebody from India? Well, maybe I'm afraid to compete with a hundred people from India. You know, like the issue is what is your your price point...
'''Eric''' I don't even know how to go into all of the things that are like really funny and wrong about this. Like one of which is, well are you afraid to compete with somebody from India? Well, maybe I'm afraid to compete with a hundred people from India. You know, like the issue is what is your your price point...


Sam  You are though, on this podcast, you're competing with people from India. I mean you're competing with, you know, there are 800,000 podcasts.  
'''Sam''' You are though, on this podcast, you're competing with people from India. I mean you're competing with, you know, there are 800,000 podcasts.  


Eric  No, no.  
'''Eric''' No, no.  


Sam  You're, you're competing with, with 799,999...  
'''Sam''' You're, you're competing with, with 799,999...  


Eric  Because it's not a uniform, because it's not a uniform product. Sam.  
'''Eric''' Because it's not a uniform, because it's not a uniform product. Sam.  


Sam  No, but you still...  
'''Sam''' No, but you still...  


Eric When you talked about software, right, most of software is glorified foreign while loops. Let's not, you know, you, you, you, you invoke a library, you code up a class.
'''Eric''' When you talked about software, right, most of software is glorified foreign while loops. Let's not, you know, you, you, you, you invoke a library, you code up a class.


Sam You can outsource it. All right.
'''Sam''' You can outsource it. All right.


Eric Well no, it's just, I'm just saying that most of what it is you're just writing code. It's got a kind of a mystique about it because a lot of people haven't done it and it's too symbolic, whatever.  
'''Eric''' Well no, it's just, I'm just saying that most of what it is you're just writing code. It's got a kind of a mystique about it because a lot of people haven't done it and it's too symbolic, whatever.  


Sam  But it's plumbing.   
'''Sam''' But it's plumbing.   


Eric  It's plumbing and a lot of science is plumbing. Yeah. And so, a lot of the stuff about the best is not very relevant. If you wanted to take the stuff that's really distinguished, you know, like you've got Rama NuGen coming from India, you know you've got you know, Ellis coming from South Africa who, whoever it is, that's really amazing, we have plenty of room for the tiny number of people who are absolutely nonhomogeneous super contributors.  
'''Eric''' It's plumbing and a lot of science is plumbing. Yeah. And so, a lot of the stuff about the best is not very relevant. If you wanted to take the stuff that's really distinguished, you know, like you've got Rama NuGen coming from India, you know you've got you know, Ellis coming from South Africa who, whoever it is, that's really amazing, we have plenty of room for the tiny number of people who are absolutely nonhomogeneous super contributors.  


Sam  So, you're just saying you want to set the bar higher.  
'''Sam''' So, you're just saying you want to set the bar higher.  


Eric  I'm not saying that, I'm saying a lot of different things. One is that people in the country have rights and they have asymmetric rights to their own labor market. That's a large part of what it means to be a citizen of a country. If I start to talk about your rights that are perhaps your most valuable economic possession, if you really think about the American workers, most valuable economic possession is asymmetric access to the American labor market. If I say, you know, your right is not an asset, but is instead an impediment, it's a barrier. And what we need to do is get rid of the red tape and I'm not going to pay you for it because it's not an asset.
'''Eric''' I'm not saying that, I'm saying a lot of different things. One is that people in the country have rights and they have asymmetric rights to their own labor market. That's a large part of what it means to be a citizen of a country. If I start to talk about your rights that are perhaps your most valuable economic possession, if you really think about the American workers, most valuable economic possession is asymmetric access to the American labor market. If I say, you know, your right is not an asset, but is instead an impediment, it's a barrier. And what we need to do is get rid of the red tape and I'm not going to pay you for it because it's not an asset.
I'm going to take it from you and I'm going to say that that's what the free market is. Well, that has nothing to do with the free market. I wrote a paper called Migration for the Benefit of All that pointed out you're free to securitize people's right and pay for it. And then everybody wins.  
I'm going to take it from you and I'm going to say that that's what the free market is. Well, that has nothing to do with the free market. I wrote a paper called Migration for the Benefit of All that pointed out you're free to securitize people's right and pay for it. And then everybody wins.  


Sam Yeah.
'''Sam''' Yeah.


Eric That's not what we do.  
'''Eric''' That's not what we do.  


Sam Okay, so, but that's, that's something we could do though. We could...
'''Sam''' Okay, so, but that's, that's something we could do though. We could...


Eric We're not interested. That would be a Coase, that's called a Coasean solution.  
'''Eric''' We're not interested. That would be a Coase, that's called a Coasean solution.  


Sam  Right.  
'''Sam''' Right.  


Eric  And the funny part about it, the, the hysterically funny part about it is that no capitalists who claim that they're interested in getting rid of the inefficiency that comes from being forced to use your own labor are interested in the model in which you actually pay people for their securitized rights. Because the real thing they're interested in is not the tiny inefficiency, which is called the Harberger triangle.
'''Eric''' And the funny part about it, the, the hysterically funny part about it is that no capitalists who claim that they're interested in getting rid of the inefficiency that comes from being forced to use your own labor are interested in the model in which you actually pay people for their securitized rights. Because the real thing they're interested in is not the tiny inefficiency, which is called the Harberger triangle.


'''Eric:'''    01:07:00      There's a giant structure below it called the Morehouse rectangle, which is what is transferred from labor to capital.  
'''Eric:'''    01:07:00      There's a giant structure below it called the Morehouse rectangle, which is what is transferred from labor to capital.  


Sam  The amazing thing is you've referenced this several times over cocktails.  
'''Sam''' The amazing thing is you've referenced this several times over cocktails.  


Eric  Yeah.  
'''Eric''' Yeah.  


Sam  In the last two years.  
'''Sam''' In the last two years.  


Eric  Yeah. Well, but, but my point.
'''Eric''' Yeah. Well, but, but my point...


Sam  This is cocktail party chatter...
'''Sam''' This is cocktail party chatter...


Eric No. But I see it, I see it differently.
'''Eric''' No. But I see it, I see it differently.


Sam  ... the Weinstein family.   
'''Sam''' ... the Weinstein family.   


Eric Sam, I see your comment that well don't we want the best and the brightest where you don't reference wage competition. It sounds more like intellectual competition, right? When you, when you, when you open a border and selectively only in certain fields, it's like opening a window in an airplane and it specifically affects the seat at which it's opened differently than everywhere else in the plane. Right?  
'''Eric''' Sam, I see your comment that well don't we want the best and the brightest where you don't reference wage competition. It sounds more like intellectual competition, right? When you, when you, when you open a border and selectively only in certain fields, it's like opening a window in an airplane and it specifically affects the seat at which it's opened differently than everywhere else in the plane. Right?  


Sam  Right.  
'''Sam''' Right.  


Eric  So, the problem I have with this is that it's a large mimetic complex and get it popping back up to the Jeff Epstein issue. The entire university and scientific complex was built on this incredible embedded growth obligation, right?
'''Eric''' So, the problem I have with this is that it's a large mimetic complex and get it popping back up to the Jeff Epstein issue. The entire university and scientific complex was built on this incredible embedded growth obligation, right?


'''Eric:'''    01:08:01      That is the thing that caused the system to have to rescue itself with immigration. So, it's really not about immigration or brown people or I don't want to compete against the best and the prizes. It, the issue was we didn't have enough people to feed into a pyramid system. And what you could do is you could, you could reference a poverty differential between Asia, which was training people acceptably well in technical subjects, but had it at a lower level, now that's changed some to fill in the bottom of the pyramid. And so that's really what it was. It was an economic X point that has nothing to do with the best and the brightest or the color of one's skin. It was just a way of saving a pyramid scheme.
'''Eric:'''    01:08:01      That is the thing that caused the system to have to rescue itself with immigration. So, it's really not about immigration or brown people or I don't want to compete against the best and the prizes. It, the issue was we didn't have enough people to feed into a pyramid system. And what you could do is you could, you could reference a poverty differential between Asia, which was training people acceptably well in technical subjects, but had it at a lower level, now that's changed some to fill in the bottom of the pyramid. And so that's really what it was. It was an economic X point that has nothing to do with the best and the brightest or the color of one's skin. It was just a way of saving a pyramid scheme.


'''Sam:'''        01:08:40      Well, I so clearly there is room for innovation on all these fronts and we should be eager to do it. And we should be certainly eager to find Ponzi schemes that we didn't know were Ponzi schemes. Right? Like I think it's, eh, we again, this touches where we started when we were talking about Samantha Power and other and the Southern Poverty Law Center. I think there, there are systems we set up with the best of intentions and you know, projects and, and meme, you know, mimetic complexes. We launch you know, upon the world with the best of intentions and we don't see the way incentives will align or the, or the, you know, the knock-on effects or the externalities of, of doing those things. And then it's just the world is more complicated than we realized.
'''Sam:'''        01:08:40      Well, I, so clearly there is room for innovation on all these fronts and we should be eager to do it. And we should be certainly eager to find Ponzi schemes that we didn't know were Ponzi schemes. Right? Like I think it's, eh, we again, this touches where we started when we were talking about Samantha Power and other and the Southern Poverty Law Center. I think there, there are systems we set up with the best of intentions and you know, projects and, and meme, you know, mimetic complexes. We launch you know, upon the world with the best of intentions and we don't see the way incentives will align or the, or the, you know, the knock-on effects or the externalities of, of doing those things. And then it's just the world is more complicated than we realized.


'''Eric:'''    01:09:29      And that's what was, so that's like the thing that scares me a little bit. Remember when I said that I have malware in my head? My belief is, is that a lot of the beautiful things that you were thinking about, about being open to the world, training the best and the brightest, keeping some of them for ourselves, distributing some of them back home to grow the pie for everyone, et cetera, et cetera. That's a mimetic complex that I, I associate with malware. It's not that there aren't aspects of it, it wasn't movement, right?
'''Eric:'''    01:09:29      And that's what was, so that's like the thing that scares me a little bit. Remember when I said that I have malware in my head? My belief is, is that a lot of the beautiful things that you were thinking about, about being open to the world, training the best and the brightest, keeping some of them for ourselves, distributing some of them back home to grow the pie for everyone, et cetera, et cetera. That's a mimetic complex that I, I associate with malware. It's not that there aren't aspects of it, it wasn't movement, right?
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'''Sam:'''        01:09:54      I think it's close to the right program. So for instance, like if you say, yeah, it's, it's the fact that I'm not thinking when I say that about the I forget how you put it, but the, the, the, the difference between the local case and the imported case, right? You know, the but by analogy, you know, opening the window on the airplane. Or just the fact that you know that you've got people here who are paying taxes to help build out local infrastructure that some, then some titan of industry is going to leverage and globalize. Right? And you know that money is not coming back to the people who are paying taxes.
'''Sam:'''        01:09:54      I think it's close to the right program. So for instance, like if you say, yeah, it's, it's the fact that I'm not thinking when I say that about the I forget how you put it, but the, the, the, the difference between the local case and the imported case, right? You know, the but by analogy, you know, opening the window on the airplane. Or just the fact that you know that you've got people here who are paying taxes to help build out local infrastructure that some, then some titan of industry is going to leverage and globalize. Right? And you know that money is not coming back to the people who are paying taxes.


'''Eric:'''    01:10:38       Games. The totality of these games is what got us very angry at the Clinton era. People. Yeah. This is the, the, the Brad Delong's and Paul Krugman’s and jug bug votees and Bill Clinton's of the world. All of these people pushed out this idea and we didn't know how to, how to oppose it, but what they were doing was allowing a slice of our country to continue to grow. It's slices of the pie,
'''Eric:'''    01:10:38     These games. The totality of these games is what got us very angry at the Clinton era. People. Yeah. This is the, the, the Brad Delong's and Paul Krugman’s and Jagdish Bhagwati's and Bill Clinton's of the world. All of these people pushed out this idea and we didn't know how to, how to oppose it. But what they were doing was allowing a slice of our country to continue to grow its slices of the pie.
 
'''Sam:'''        01:11:09      But again, it's, it's just easy to find non nefarious, not malignantly selfish understanding of what happened. I'll give you another example, which, which I think is you're totally familiar with but will seem less sinister or at least it seems so to me. So, you take what happened to the music industry, right? So, it's like we have a, a breakthrough in technology. We go from vinyl to CDs and then, those, you know, we, we suffer those jewel cases for about a decade and then we get PMP3s which opened the door to piracy of a sort which no one has anticipated. And then we managed to close down the piracy. We have the, you know, the iTunes store and people are but because of this, this explosion of piracy and now the prospect of, of, of just, you know, now it's all bits, it's not atoms anymore.
 
'''Sam:'''        01:12:08      We have a, just a fundamental devaluation of the product. Right? Like the music, the music, the value of the music has basically gone to zero. Right. because my, my using a copy of it is not, is not taking it from you.
 
Eric Because of two things,  its exhausted ability and exclude ability.
 
Sam  Right.
 
Eric  The idea is that if I buy a vinyl record, 1) my use of it will eventually wear down the grooves.
 
Sam Exactly.
 
Eric As it to do in the old days and 2) my having the record means that you don't have that car


'''Sam:'''        01:11:09      But again, it's, it's just easy to find non nefarious, not malignantly selfish understanding of what happened. I'll give you another example, which, which I think is you're totally familiar with but will seem less sinister or at least it seems so to me. So, you take what happened to the music industry, right? So, it's like we have a, a breakthrough in technology. We go from vinyl to CDs and then Emma, those, you know, w we, we suffer those jewel cases for about a decade and then we get Pam P threes which opened the door to piracy of a sort. No one has anticipated. And then we managed to close down the piracy. We have the, you know, the iTunes store and people are but because of this, this explosion of piracy and now the prospect of, of, of just, you know, now it's all bits, it's not Adam's anymore.
Sam I have to borrow it.  


'''Sam:'''        01:12:08      We have a, just a fundamental devaluation of the product. Right? Like the music, the music, the value of the music has basically gone to zero. Right. Because my, my using a copy of it is not, is not taking it because of two things and its exhausted ability and exclude ability. Right. The idea is that if I buy a vinyl record, one my use of it will eventually wear down the grooves. Exactly. Used to do in the old days and to my having the record means that you don't have that car and that the, the per the unit costs is not zero. I can't copy your record for free. Yeah. That is this issue about private goods and services became public goods and services and even the diehard economists who are free market have to recognize that if something is inexhaustible and an excludable price does not equal value and therefore it cannot command its value.
Eric and that the, the per the unit costs is not zero.  


'''Sam:'''        01:13:01      So that was clear to many of us just as, but I'm saying there's a non-nefarious account of what happened there. Where your iTunes, right, your Apple, you open iTunes for the good of all right? But you, you obviously want to make a profit, right? This is a fantastic business. But what, when, if you're the musician who now who's now because catalog is now worth, you know, one 10th of what it used to be worth and now you're, you have this sort of life change foisted on you, where now the only way for you to make ends meet is to tour. But you're 70 years old and you, you know, you, you felt your touring was behind you, right? All of this looks awful. But again, nobody was thinking about that guy when they, when these changes will shit. Well, it's easy to see that most people weren't thinking, well, no one, no one had bad intentions toward that. Remember, information just wants to be free and free like beer and all this nonsense. I thought that stuff was just like moronic at the time. Okay. The same thing with NAFTA, right? The claim. But again, so, so what you had in your sites was not, you can't, I don't think you're, you're, you're the wrong theory of mind. If you think everyone was aware of what you were aware of and just had the say, the ethical switch flipped in the other direction.
Sam I can't copy your record for free. Yeah.  


'''Eric:'''    01:14:23      The class, the economic class teaches public goods in every econ one Oh one textbook, right? They also teach trade. They have two different names for what happens to improve a society. In terms of how it's measured, one called Pereda improvement, which is that everybody in the society is as good or better off. And the other one called Kaldor Hicks, which is, some people get hurt, some people get helped. But were you to text the winners to pay the losers? Everyone could be prorated or improved. Okay. When you ask these people in real time, why are you talking about a Kaldor Hicks improvement in Pareto terms? So, this is the technical, esoteric conversation. Why is your exoteric description of this at odds with your esoteric, alright, this is pure stress in cryptic bullshit. They said, well, we can't really say that and we hope that somebody, it's not our job, it was this wall of total nonsense. And it wasn't that this wasn't being said in real time.
Eric That is this issue about private goods and services became public goods and services and even the diehard economists who are free market have to recognize that if something is inexhaustible and an excludable price does not equal value and therefore it cannot command its value.
So that was clear to many of us just as...


'''Sam:'''        01:15:35      Well the number of people, I'm sure you can find the people at the conference who were, I mean it's, you know, they, they have, they have one way of speaking to the profession. And one way of speaking on the [inaudible] page in New York times, this is one of the reasons why you and I split on the seam to lab. I stood shoulder to shoulder with the seam during the total nonsense called the great moderation in our financial structure right before 2008 right. And the only reason why I split on Nasim is that he just wakes up one morning and you know, off his meds and attacks me for reasons I can never, but it's awesome. So, it's like, it's totally personal. Like, Oh, it's amazing. Tended to be personal. It's not that I take it personally. I mean, I actually, I don't even think it's already personal. He can correct me on that, but it's apropos of nothing. Like I've been, you know, I've been sleeping when he was sleeping and then I w I, I turn on Twitter and I see that he's attacked me by name for some reason my phone lights up and it says this, there's no intellectual content
Sam But I'm saying there's a non-nefarious account of what happened there. Where your iTunes, right, your Apple, you open iTunes for the good of all right? But you, you obviously want to make a profit, right? This is a fantastic business. But what, when, if you're the musician who now who's now because catalog is now worth, you know, one 10th of what it used to be worth and now you're, you have this sort of life change foisted on you, where now the only way for you to make ends meet is to tour. But you're 70 years old and you, you know, you, you felt your touring was behind you, right? All of this looks awful. But again, nobody was thinking about that guy when they, when these changes came about.


'''Eric:'''    01:16:33       Isn't the same. Nicholas Taleb, he's been my friend for a long time. I literally shake like I have to hit. Right,
Eric  Bull shit.
 
Sam Well, it's easy to see that most people weren't thinking, well, no one, no one had bad intentions toward that.
 
Eric Remember, information just wants to be free and free like beer and all this nonsense. I thought that stuff was just like moronic at the time. Okay. The same thing with NAFTA, right? The claim...
 
Sam But again, so, so what you had in your sites was not, you can't, I don't think you're, you're, you're the wrong theory of mind if you think everyone was aware of what you were aware of and just had the say, the ethical switch flipped in the other direction.
 
'''Eric:'''    01:14:23       Ok. The class, the economic class teaches public goods in every Econ 101 textbook, right? They also teach trade. They have two different names for what happens to improve a society. In terms of how it's measured, one called Pareto improvement, which is that everybody in the society is as good or better off. And the other one called Kaldor-Hicks, which is, some people get hurt, some people get helped. But were you to tax the winners to pay the losers everyone could be Pareto improved. Okay. When you ask these people in real time, why are you talking about a Kaldor-Hicks improvement in Pareto terms? So, this is the technical, esoteric conversation. Why is your exoteric description of this at odds with your esoteric, alright, this is pure Straussian cryptic bullshit. They said, well, we can't really say that and we hope that somebody, it's not our job, it was this wall of total nonsense. And it wasn't that this wasn't being said in real time. But the number of people...
 
'''Sam:'''        01:15:35      Well, I'm sure you can find the people at the conference who were, I mean it's, you know, they, they have, they have one way of speaking to the profession. And one way of speaking on the op-ed pages in New York Times.
 
Eric This is one of the reasons why you and I split on Nassim Taleb. I stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Nassim during the total nonsense called the great moderation in our financial structure right before 2008, right.
 
Sam And the only reason why I split on Nassim is that he just wakes up one morning and you know, off his meds and attacks me for reasons I can never fathom. So, it's like, it's totally personal. Like, or it's intended to be personal. It's not that I take it personally. I mean, I actually,
 
Eric  I don't even think it's already personal. He can correct me on that.
 
Sam  But it's apropos of nothing. Like I've been, you know, I've been sleeping when he was sleeping and then I turn on Twitter and I see that he's attacked me by name for some reason...
 
Eric When my phone lights up and it says Nassim.
 
Sam  There's no intellectual content.
 
'''Eric:'''    01:16:33      When it says Nassim Nicholas Taleb, he's been my friend for a long time. I literally shake like I have to hit. Right?


'''Sam:'''        01:16:41      Right. Okay. But that's a problem of his personality that he's exporting to the environment. You're part of the environment.
'''Sam:'''        01:16:41      Right. Okay. But that's a problem of his personality that he's exporting to the environment. You're part of the environment.


'''Eric:'''    01:16:47      Look, Nassim is not an inside cat. He just isn't. I see the things he does and I get, I get a lump in my throat and I think, am I going to have to defend this? I know I know what he does, but I think people don't understand him, so at least let me offer up a, an apology for, for Nassim Taleb, which he may rip my head off for say Nassim is constructed around things that are much larger than what other people are considering and I don't, I'm not saying that he does everything well. I obviously have a totally different tack than he does, so I'm very uncomfortable with his methods, but let's at least say what they are and steel man to the extent possible. Other people say you, you, you, Joe are misusing statistics. The scene would say there's a problem with statistics. Yeah. And it's constructed to be misused and it's misused all the time in the same way. And if you do anything that you were normally taught to do in statistics class, if you have a PhD in statistics, you're part of the problem. And I'm going to hold you personally responsible right now. This is very disconcerting to people. Yeah.  
'''Eric:'''    01:16:47      Look, Nassim is not an inside cat. He just isn't. I see the things he does and I get, I get a lump in my throat and I think, am I going to have to defend this? I know I know what he does, but I think people don't understand him, so at least let me offer up a, an apology for, for Nassim Taleb, which he may rip my head off for saying. Nassim is constructed around things that are much larger than what other people are considering and I don't, I'm not saying that he does everything well. I obviously have a totally different tack than he does, so I'm very uncomfortable with his methods, but let's at least say what they are and steel man to the extent possible. Other people say you, you, you, Joe are misusing statistics. Nassim would say there's a problem with statistics. Yeah. And it's constructed to be misused and it's misused all the time in the same way. And if you do anything that you were normally taught to do in statistics class, if you have a PhD in statistics, you're part of the problem. And I'm going to hold you personally responsible right now. This is very disconcerting to people. Yeah.
 
'''Sam:'''        01:17:57      And so, I mean, I, I don't think we should spend a lot of time on this, but there, there are areas where I am not qualified to fact check him. The areas where I am, where he gives opinions are just as strident, it's just a deluge of bullshit coming from him. So, like he, you know, the stuff he has said about religion and science is not even, I mean, the truth is it's not even wrong. It's like it's, it's, it's incoherent. It's not like he's got a, a counterpoint that I still think is wrong, but you know, it has to be argued against. It's just this vomitus.
 
'''Eric:'''    01:18:32      I've gotten there too. I can't stand the style cause it just hurts me. Like I just, I, I'm very uncomfortable by it. However, there are plenty of times when I thought he was talking nonsense that like, at first it sounds like he's making a sensible objection. Then I'm just like convinced this as he's going off the rails and then I push further and it turns out there's even more of a point. So I have learned to be very cautious around him, not because he's the person you want around for most of the time, but when we were in the middle of the great moderation and I, I punked out cause I was, I was with him and I was giving talks about Epstein and Madoff, it was at the two mysterious functions in New York. And I used to put slides up about black arts capital. It was sort of a play on like Blackstone or BlackRock.
 
'''Eric:'''    01:19:23      And the idea is we'd tell you what we're doing, but we'd have to kill you.
 
'''Sam'''  Right.
 
'''Eric''' The, we, we just didn't know. And I, I got Madoff wrong. I thought he was front running his legitimate business, which turns out it was just a Ponzi scheme.
 
'''Sam'''  Right.
 
'''Eric'''  But I knew Epstein was very likely to be something totally other than he was. Nassim during this period of time that we were both discussing the nonsense. That was the suppose great moderation, was the other guy who would take as much punishment as the community would throw at him and then would just humiliate him. It's like, Oh, he made one lucky trade in 1987 the guy's an idiot. He's a blowhard. He's a fool. And I couldn't take the pressure from giving this talk that obviously we hadn't banished volatility. And I think around 2005, I was about three years in and Nassim says, you know, you're going to regret getting out of this early.
 
'''Eric:'''    01:20:15      You should see it through. And it always stuck with me that I didn't quite have the courage or the strength or the guts or the disagreability to continue, at least to hold the intellectual position. I couldn't time when this thing was going to blow, but it was, you know, I wrote this thing on mortgage backed securities with Adil, Abdullah Ali in 2001. This was nonsense. And it was a world in which almost no one was willing to call it out. And so, the singularity in my, in my world about Nassim has to do with he, he's willing to be one person against billions. He will, he will literally just stand up against any crowd.
 
'''Sam:'''        01:20:58    Okay, well, so that's, that's often a bug. And you found the one case perhaps where it was a feature, but it's a, I mean, first of all, we're all like that to some degree. I mean, we were, we're all standing up, right?
 
'''Eric''' It's very hard for me.
 
'''Sam'''  And, yeah, but it...
 
'''Eric''' I mean, I, I do it and you do it, but you don't get weak-kneed. I get weak-kneed.
 
'''Sam'''  Yeah, occasionally. But it's, it's, there is a kind, I mean, again, I'm a, not to psychoanalyze him, but there's this, there's a sort of Trumpian level personality problem layered on top of his intellect where, I'm not disputing the guy is smart, he's a, there's no question, he's smart, but there's just, there's so much personality to get through and wrangle with, to interact with whatever, whatever smarts are showing up for depending on the topic. And again, with some topics, you know, I haven't found the smarts, but I'm not disputing that.
 
'''Sam:'''        01:21:47      The guy, obviously he's intelligent, is just, he's so, there's no one more enamored of his intelligence than him. Right. And it's just, it's like that level of egocentricity. Again, it has a kind of Trumpian, you know, peacock fan, a quality to it. And in in the cases where it's warranted, it's still extra and it's bullshit and it's annoying when it's unwarranted, it's embarrassing and he has zero sense of where he is on, on that landscape.
 
'''Eric'''  I hear what you're saying. I do have the sense of the number of floorboards that I can hide under when the storm troopers come from me, a very few and far between that I can count on and I can count on his.
 
'''Sam''' Okay.
 
'''Eric''' So, we don't need to derange on that front.
 
'''Sam''' You're putting a high price on personality, I mean I get..
 
'''Eric:'''    01:22:34      No, I'm about...
 
'''Sam''' ... a high price on personal loyalty.
 
Eric But you know, Sam, I honestly, I find the same thing about you. If I'm in a storm, you're one of the tiny number of phone calls I can place and it's very odd for me that ...
 
'''Sam''' Well, I would want you to, I would want you to feel that way.
 
'''Eric'''  I do. I absolutely do.
 
'''Sam''' So, when I call it pick it up and ...
 
'''Eric''' Okay.
 
'''Sam'''  But you need not, you need not shudder at what's coming.
 
'''Eric''' But getting, getting back to the, to this large... So, with all of these very dangerous and disturbing topics, I start to understand that you believe, and I think it's correct that we often get to hell through a road paved with good intentions.
 
'''Sam'''  Yeah.
 
'''Eric'''  I don't disagree with that.
 
'''Sam'''  And the, and the converse is also true. You can have, you can have good effects of, of bad intentions and that's, and you shouldn't, you shouldn't credit the good effects too highly there. You know, because like the, the, I think intentions matter for the most part. I mean, intentions are the operating system. So, we could like if you are, if you're iterating on your intentions, if you're, if your error correcting...
 
'''Eric''' Right.  


'''Sam:'''         01:17:57      And so, I mean, I, I don't think we should spend a lot of time on this, but there, there are areas where I am not qualified to fact check him. The areas where I am, where he gives opinions are just as strident. It's just a deluge of bullshit coming from him. So, like he, you know, the stuff he has said about religion and science is not even, I mean, the truth is it's not even wrong. It's like it's, it's, it's incoherent. It's not like he's got a, a counterpoint that I still think is wrong, but you know, it has to be argued against. Just vomitus
'''Sam''' And hewing back to, to the, the outcomes you actually want, right. That is, those are the people we can collaborate with that, you know, when they're, when they're ethical, they, the people who are right by accidents, are producing good things by accident are ...


'''Eric:'''     01:18:32      Gotten there too. I can't stand the style cause it just hurts me. Like I just, I, I'm very uncomfortable by it. However, there are plenty of times when I thought he was talking nonsense that like, at first it sounds like he's making a sensible objection. Then I'm just like convinced this as he's going off the rails and then I push further and it turns out there's even more of a point. So I have learned to be very cautious around him, not because he's the person you want around for most of the time, but when we were in the middle of the great moderation and I, I punked out cause I was, I was with him and I was giving talks about Epstein and Madoff. It was at the two mysterious functions in New York. And I used to put slides up about black arts capital. It was sort of a play on like Blackstone or BlackRock.
'''Eric''' It's, it's how, it's how we encode this. That's so interesting to me. Like when we order veal, we just say the word veal. We don't think about what it is that we're causing to occur.  


'''Eric:'''     01:19:23      And the idea is we'd tell you what we're doing, but we'd have to kill you. Right? The, we, we just didn't know. And I, I got Madoff wrong. I thought he was front running his legitimate business, which turns out it was just a Ponzi scheme. Right. But I knew Epstein was very likely to be something totally other than he was. And the seam during this period of time that we were both discussing the nonsense. That was the suppose great moderation was the other guy who would take as much punishment as the community would throw at him and then would just humiliate him. It's like, Oh, he made one lucky trade in 1987 the guy's an idiot. He's a blowhard. He's a fool. And I couldn't take the pressure from giving this talk that obviously we hadn't banished volatility. And I think around 2005, I was about three years in and the seam says, you know, you're going to regret getting out of this early.
'''Sam''' I want the, I want the three-minute video before I eat the veal.  


'''Eric:'''     01:20:15      You should see it through. And it always stuck with me that I didn't quite have the courage or the strength or the guts or the disagree ability to continue, at least to hold the intellectual position. I couldn't time when this thing was going to blow, but it was, you know, I wrote this thing on mortgage backed securities with Adil, Abdullah Ali in 2001. This was nonsense. And it was a world in which almost no one was willing to call it out. And so, the singularity in my, in my world about Nassim has to do with he, he's willing to be one person against billions. He will, he will literally just stand up against any crowd. Okay, well, so that's,
'''Eric''' Exactly. Like very few of us do that. When I think about like how Debbie Wasserman-Schultz...


'''Sam:'''         01:20:58      That's often a bug. And you found the one case perhaps where it was a feature, but it's a, I mean, first of all, we're all like that to some degree. I mean, we were, we're all standing up, right? And, yeah, but it, I mean, I, I do it and you do it, but yeah. You don't see a weak need. I get weak need. Yeah, occasionally. But it's, it's, there is a kind, I mean, again, I'm a, not to psychoanalyze him, but there's this, there's a sort of Trumpy and level personality problem layered on top of his intellect where I'm not disputing the guy is smart, he's a, there's no question. He's smart, but there's just, there's so much personality to get through and wrangle with, to interact with whatever, whatever smarts are showing up for depending on the topic. And again, with some topics, you know, I haven't found the smarts, but I'm not disputing that.
'''Sam''' But that's why I don't order veal, right. That that's a difference. At a certain point, too much information has a consequence. Right? Like I, I'm not comfortable with veal or foie gras, right.


'''Sam:'''         01:21:47      The guy, obviously he's intelligent, is just, he's so, there's no one more enamored of his intelligence than him. Right. And it's just, it's like that level of egocentricity. Again, it has a kind of Trumpian, you know, peacock fan, a quality to it. And in in the cases where it's warranted, it's still extra and is bullshit and it's annoying when it's unwarranted. It's embarrassing and he has zero sense of where he is on, on that landscape. I hear what you're saying. I do have the sense of the number of floorboards that I can hide under when the storm troopers come from me, a very few and far between that I can count on and I can count on his, okay. So, we don't need to derange on that front in a high price on person. I mean I get
'''Eric''' Yeah.


'''Eric:'''     01:22:34      No, I'm about on, on personal loyalty. But you know, Sam, I honestly, I find the same thing about you very. If I'm in a storm, you're one of the tiny number of phone calls I can place and it's very odd for me that I would want you to, I would want you to feel that way. I do. I absolutely do. So, pick one, I call it pick it up and yeah. Okay. But need not, you need not shutter at what's coming, but getting, getting back to the, to this large. So, with all of these very dangerous and disturbing topics, I start to understand that you believe, and I think it's correct that we can
'''Sam''' So, it's like if, and it would matter, it should if you said, well, here's veal, but this is veal, this is pain-free veal. Right.  


'''Sam:'''         01:23:06      Often get to hell through a road paved with good intentions. Yeah. I don't disagree with that. And the, and the converse is also true. You can have, you can have good effects of, of bad intentions and that's and you shouldn't, you shouldn't credit the good effects to highly there, you know, because like the, the, I think intentions matter for the most part. I mean, intentions are the operating system. So, we could like if you are, if you're iterating on your intentions, if you're, if your error correcting right. And hewing back to, to the, the outcomes you actually want. Right. That is, those are the people we can collaborate with that, you know, when they're, when they're ethical, they, the people who are right by accidents, how are producing good things by accident are it's, it's how, it's how we encode this. That's so interesting to me.
'''Eric''' Right.  


'''Sam:'''         01:23:58      Like when we order veal, we just saved the word via. We don't think about what it is that we're causing to occur. I want the, I want the three-minute video before I eat the veal. Exactly. Like very few of us do that. When I think about like how Debbie Wasserman, but that's why I don't order veal, right. That that's a difference. At a certain point, too much information has a consequence. Right? Like I, I'm not comfortable with veal or flog raw. Right. Yeah. So, it's like if, and it would matter, it should if you said, well, here's veal, but this is veal. This is pain-free veal. Right. Right. This is veal. That was, you know, synthesize in a lab. No animals involved. The problem goes away. So that's that. That's the fact that there is, you'd want there to be a difference there.
'''Sam''' This is veal that was, you know, synthesized in a lab. No animals involved. The problem goes away. So that's that. That's the fact that there is, you'd want there to be a difference there.


'''Sam:'''        01:24:44      You wouldn't want, I mean, well, take the most extreme case. You wouldn't want to be the person who would pay more for the veal if you knew there was more suffering associated with it. Rightly, you wouldn't want to, we wouldn't want one. The PR would be the person who, for whom the suffering is part of the pleasure. Right? That's the [inaudible]. That's clearly a place on the moral landscape you don't want to be and yeah. And you don't want to be associated with, right. So, if that's at all unsavory, then they're there many gradations of better than that. Right. So, it's back to my issue about orchids are either the best or worst species? Yeah. Nobody, I didn't mean to derail you there, but it matters. Like we need to unpack the mimetic complex and get it what's inside. And it matters if we, if we fail to, if there's a lot in sign and we were, we're unaware of it. Sure. That matters. Okay. How often are we just saying veal, but for example, I remember when Debbie Wasserman Schultz was being interviewed about superdelegates and she said they're not super delegates. They're unpledged delicates and delegates. And why do we have to have them? And I think she said something to the effect, and if I'm getting this wrong, I
'''Sam:'''        01:24:44      You wouldn't want, I mean, well, take the most extreme case. You wouldn't want to be the person who would pay more for the veal if you knew there was more suffering associated with it. Rightly, you wouldn't want to, we wouldn't want one. The PR would be the person who, for whom the suffering is part of the pleasure. Right? That's the [inaudible]. That's clearly a place on the moral landscape you don't want to be and yeah. And you don't want to be associated with, right. So, if that's at all unsavory, then they're there many gradations of better than that. Right. So, it's back to my issue about orchids are either the best or worst species? Yeah. Nobody, I didn't mean to derail you there, but it matters. Like we need to unpack the mimetic complex and get it what's inside. And it matters if we, if we fail to, if there's a lot in sign and we were, we're unaware of it. Sure. That matters. Okay. How often are we just saying veal, but for example, I remember when Debbie Wasserman Schultz was being interviewed about superdelegates and she said they're not super delegates. They're unpledged delicates and delegates. And why do we have to have them? And I think she said something to the effect, and if I'm getting this wrong, I
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