Difference between revisions of "11: Sam Harris - Fighting with Friends"

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'''Eric'''  Let me just...  
'''Eric'''  Let me just...  


'''Sam''' I've suggested by analogy to the Chauncey Gardner effect, or the evil Chauncey Gardner effect.  
'''Sam''' I've suggested by analogy to the Chauncey Gardiner effect, or the evil Chauncey Gardiner effect.  


'''Eric'''  Well, but that's wrong.  
'''Eric'''  Well, but that's wrong.  
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'''Eric''' So I think that there is a certain amount of method that you were slow to give, give him credit for. But I think you're probably inching towards the idea that if he's not an evil genius, he has some evil genius.  
'''Eric''' So I think that there is a certain amount of method that you were slow to give, give him credit for. But I think you're probably inching towards the idea that if he's not an evil genius, he has some evil genius.  


'''Sam'''  I think it's just, again, I, I'm enamored of my Chauncey-Gardner analogy.  
'''Sam'''  I think it's just, again, I, I'm enamored of my Chauncey Gardiner-Gardner analogy.  


'''Eric'''  All right.
'''Eric'''  All right.
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'''Eric'''  Is that, is that your model for what was going on?  
'''Eric'''  Is that, is that your model for what was going on?  


'''Sam''' Well, it's, it's, it's my model for part of it. So, I mean, take someone like, well, let me take Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, right? Well, I don't know Mark I don't know how mercenary he's been from the beginning or, and how out of touch with the possible harms he might cause, he's been. But I can, well imagine that here's somebody who could honestly say, you know, connecting people is an intrinsic good. I'm just going to do that better than anybody. And the, you know, the wealth will come and this is all good for everybody. Right? And then only at the 11th hour, you know, long after many of us have, have noticed a problem, he begins to play catch up with the problem. That's a, that's a fairly charitable view of, of what he was up to. Or the, you know, the Google guys, you know, "don't be evil". Like I, I don't think when they said "don't be evil", they were, you know, twirling their mustaches and, and winking at each other, knowing all the, while they were going to create a, a juggernaut of instability for... and also get fantastically wealthy and anchored to  an extractive and ultimately unethical new kind of surveillance economy that you know, we're, we're going to be, you know, hard pressed to change. I don't think I, at what point did they grade into having consciously bad intentions or consciously intention intentions that were so mercenary as to be unethical?
'''Sam''' Well, it's, it's, it's my model for part of it. So, I mean, take someone like, well, let me take Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, right? Well, I don't know Mark I don't know how mercenary he's been from the beginning or, and how out of touch with the possible harms he might cause, he's been.  
But a, but a pure case of this for me falls in another sector, not economy, but foreign policy. You look at somebody like Samantha Power, right? Who you know, who wrote this famous book on genocide, A Problem from Hell? She, you know, she drew lessons from our failure to intervene in a place like Rwanda, right? And that we were morally culpable in some basic sense for not having intervened, right. That we could have stopped the bloodshed. We didn't, and we even had, you know, Navy seal teams.
I mean, Jocko was just on this podcast and Jocko I think was off shore, but you know, at the time and we, we, you know, he'd drawn the lesson from Somalia seeing our, you know, the, the Black Hawk down incident, seeing are our soldiers dragged through the streets that we just can't get involved. And what happens when you're the one superpower and decide you can't get involved? Well, then people, you know, butcher their neighbors and there's no way to stop them. So, I think with the best of intentions, she and many others drew the lesson that we really do have to be the, the world's cop on some level and we have to get involved. And we're morally culpable for not stopping at a rape and progress or a murder in progress. And, but now we're on the other side of that you know, U shaped horror curve where we now know what it's like to get involved with however mixed intentions and we, and it's, it's a, a thankless job, right? Like a bill nation building is not a, it's not a job that we're going to want for, for a long time and for good reason.


'''Eric:'''    00:35:07      I actually have some weird backstory on that one. So, I knew Samantha power at the Kennedy school and she and I sat down, I mean, not, well I don't think. We sat down at a meal and we had friends that connected us. Right. And I asked what you were at, what are you interested in? And she said, well, I'm obsessed with the red Sox and genocide. Yeah. I said, what? That's a good icebreaker. And she said, well, you know, the rap on me is I'm all genocide all the time, but nobody cares. And I, you know, I've got book and I can't figure out the answer to the question, why is there not a resolution that we will never, why is it never again not a resolution? And every time I try to get a state to sign up for this or somebody to take this seriously, there's this weird wall that comes down.
But I can, well imagine that here's somebody who could honestly say, you know, connecting people is an intrinsic good. I'm just going to do that better than anybody. And the, you know, the wealth will come and this is all good for everybody. Right? And then only at the 11th hour, you know, long after many of us have, have noticed a problem, he begins to play catch up with the problem.  


'''Eric:'''    00:35:54      It's the clearest thing in the world that we should never let genocide ever happen again. Right? And she was convinced and nobody's going to take her seriously. This was going to go nowhere. And then progressively, somehow this thing started to catch fire and I, for a period of time I was emailing her like, do you believe it now? Do you believe it now that this, cause I, I knew this thing was going to get huge? I also knew that it wasn't going to work because it just, it comes from this beautiful place that is not really deeply beautiful. I mean it's sort of meretricious it's appealing but it doesn't understand what the forces are that create genocide because very few people want to go that deep on that question. And in that case, I saw a human being who I can just vouch for it.
That's a, that's a fairly charitable view of, of what he was up to. Or the, you know, the Google guys, you know, "don't be evil". Like I, I don't think when they said "don't be evil", they were, you know, twirling their mustaches and, and winking at each other, knowing all the, while they were going to create a, a juggernaut of instability for... and also get fantastically wealthy and anchored to  an extractive and ultimately unethical new kind of surveillance economy that you know, we're, we're going to be, you know, hard pressed to change. I don't think I, at what point did they grade into having consciously bad intentions or consciously intention intentions that were so mercenary as to be unethical?


'''Eric:'''    00:36:43      This was the purest of intentions early on. And then it, as the complexity started to reveal themselves, she became enmeshed in a very difficult series of trolley problems or you know, trolley like problems, right? I believe that that partially happens in places like Facebook and Google, but very often I think it's your theory of mine that I'm going to take issue with, which is that I don't think people are as unified in their thinking. They very often having mercenary part of their brain and the beautiful part of their brain and they have a partition that keeps those from talking to each other. And then one of the ways in which I found this out was when a group of people, doctors actually in New York city wanted to sort of use me as a consultant for my mathematical and analytic mind. And we went out for a very fancy dinner and they said, I said, what's the topic?
But a, but a purer case of this for me falls in another sector, not economy, but foreign policy. You look at somebody like Samantha Power, right? Who you know, who wrote this famous book on genocide, A Problem from Hell? She, you know, she drew lessons from our failure to intervene in a place like Rwanda, right? And that we were morally culpable in some basic sense for not having intervened, right. That we could have stopped the bloodshed. We didn't, and we even had, you know, Navy seal teams. I mean, Jocko was just on this podcast and Jocko I think was off shore, but you know, at the time and we, we, you know, he'd drawn the lesson from Somalia seeing our, you know, the, the Black Hawk down incident, seeing are our soldiers dragged through the streets that we just can't get involved.


'''Eric:'''    00:37:36       And they said, reconceptualizing medical debt. I knew nothing about this. And essentially what they told me is that if you go to an emergency room and you agree to have all sorts of things done, you don't feel like paying exorbitant inflated bills later because you feel like that was an emergency. I had no ability to actually think this through. Yeah, exactly. And this is extortionary. But if you give somebody the ability to say, okay, what if you pay us 82 cents on the dollar and we'll, we'll let 18 cents go. Then suddenly the, the performance of that debt skyrockets.
And what happens when you're the one superpower and decide you can't get involved? Well, then people, you know, butcher their neighbors and there's no way to stop them. So, I think with the best of intentions, she and many others drew the lesson that we really do have to be the, the world's cop on some level and we have to get involved. And we're morally culpable for not stopping at a rape in progress or a murder in progress. And, but now we're on the other side of that you know, U-shaped horror curve where we now know what it's like to get involved with however mixed intentions and we, and it's, it's a, a thankless job, right? Like a bill, nation building is not a, it's not a job that we're going to want for, for a long time and for good reason.
 
'''Eric:'''    00:35:07      I actually have some weird backstory on that one. So, I knew Samantha Power at the Kennedy School and she and I sat down, I mean, not, well I don't think. We sat down at a meal and we had friends that connected us. Right. And I asked what you were at, what are you interested in? And she said, well, I'm obsessed with the Red Sox and genocide. Yeah. I said, what?
 
'''Sam'''  That's a good icebreaker.
 
'''Eric'''  And she said, well, you know, the rap on me is I'm all genocide all the time, but nobody cares. And I, you know, I've got book and I can't figure out the answer to the question, why is there not a resolution that we will never, why is it never again not a resolution? And every time I try to get a state to sign up for this or somebody to take this seriously, there's this weird wall that comes down.
 
'''Eric:'''    00:35:54       It's the clearest thing in the world that we should never let genocide ever happen again. Right? And she was convinced and nobody's going to take her seriously. This was going to go nowhere. And then progressively, somehow this thing started to catch fire and I, for a period of time I was emailing her like, do you believe it now? Do you believe it now that this, cause I, I knew this thing was going to get huge?
 
I also knew that it wasn't going to work because it just, it comes from this beautiful place that is not really deeply beautiful. I mean it's sort of meretricious it's appealing but it doesn't understand what the forces are that create genocide because very few people want to go that deep on that question. And in that case, I saw a human being who I can just vouch for it.
 
This was the purest of intentions early on. And then it, as the complexity started to reveal themselves, she became enmeshed in a very difficult series of trolley problems or you know, trolley like problems, right? I believe that that partially happens in places like Facebook and Google, but very often I think it's your theory of mind that I'm going to take issue with, which is that I don't think people are as unified in their thinking.
 
They very often having mercenary part of their brain and the beautiful part of their brain and they have a partition that keeps those from talking to each other.
 
And then one of the ways in which I found this out was when a group of people, doctors actually in New York city wanted to sort of use me as a consultant for my mathematical and analytic mind. And we went out for a very fancy dinner and they said, I said, what's the topic? And they said, reconceptualizing medical debt. I knew nothing about this. And essentially what they told me is that if you go to an emergency room and you agree to have all sorts of things done, you don't feel like paying exorbitant inflated bills later because you feel like that was an emergency. I had no ability to actually think this through. Yeah, exactly. And this is extortionary. But if you give somebody the ability to say, okay, what if you pay us 82 cents on the dollar and we'll, we'll let 18 cents go. Then suddenly the, the performance of that debt skyrockets.
 
'''Eric:'''    00:38:20      And a phrase came out, which was when they talked about reconceptualization, they said it's a beautiful thing. And I realized that I had heard that phrase in New York. Whenever people are up to no good, "it's a beautiful thing". It's a beautiful thing, you know, it's just, and so I then put out this thing in my group, which is, did you notice that when people in New York do bad things to other people, they always say "it's a beautiful thing". And sure enough, it caught in people's minds. Whenever anybody started to say it, they realized, Oh my gosh, I'm in a part of my mind that recognizes that I can transfer wealth from somebody else to me largely without the other person knowing it in a way that results in benefit for me in some harm that's been externalized.  


'''Eric:'''    00:38:20      And a phrase came out, which was when they talked about reconceptualization, they said it's a beautiful thing. And I realized that I had heard that phrase in New York. Whenever people are up to no good, it's a beautiful thing. It's a beautiful thing, you know, it's just, and so I then put out this thing in my group, which is, did you notice that when people in New York do bad things to other people, they always say it's a beautiful thing. And sure enough, it caught in people's minds. Whenever anybody started to say it, they realized, Oh my gosh, I'm in a part of my mind that recognizes that I can transfer wealth from somebody else to me largely without the other person knowing it in a way that results in benefit for me in some harm that's been externalized.
I think that people both know that they're doing tremendous harm and carry the idealism that propels it. And that's, it's the combination of these things and the fact that they don't talk to each other.  
I think that people both know that they're doing tremendous harm and carry the idealism that propels it. And that's, it's the combination of these things and the fact that they don't talk to each other.  


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Eric  But you're getting them to cohere.
Eric  But you're getting them to cohere.


'''Sam:'''        00:40:01      Yeah. No. So, but so, but when you're talking about the normal person who, I think it is a frequent phenomenon , to have, you know, normal, the normal range of good intentions to not be a sociopath, to want to help the world to be in philanthropy, for instance, right. To, to, to, to actually to be this, I mean, you're already, if you're devoting your life, if you are a, you know, a smart person who, you know, got a good degree, who could work more or less anywhere, but you decide to work for, for a charity, right? You're already an outlier. You're already somebody who said no to Wall Street or no to Hollywood or no to something, and now you're working for the, you know, the Southern Poverty Law Center or something like, you want to just stop racism, right? So, you're already one of the good guys. Right? And but so, I mean, this is an example, dear to my heart that I flog at every opportunity, the Southern poverty law center is, you know, I think was probably consciously started for the best of intentions operated under the, you know, the, the blindingly brilliant light of, of those intentions for a very long time. But something flipped. And one thing that flipped is that, and it's probably unbeknownst to everybody, there's a bad incentive problem here. I mean, the, the only way they survive as an organization is to continue to stay at, in this sort of long emergency mode of  
'''Sam:'''        00:40:01      Yeah. No. So, but so, but when you're talking about the normal person who, I think it is a frequent phenomenon , to have, you know, normal, the normal range of good intentions to not be a sociopath, to want to help the world to be in philanthropy, for instance, right. To, to, to, to actually to be this, I mean, you're already, if you're devoting your life, if you are a, you know, a smart person who, you know, got a good degree, who could work more or less anywhere, but you decide to work for, for a charity, right? You're already an outlier. You're already somebody who said no to Wall Street or no to Hollywood or no to something, and now you're working for the, you know, the Southern Poverty Law Center or something like, you want to just stop racism, right? So, you're already one of the good guys.  
there are Nazis everywhere, right? The everyone, it's like, this is a problem. It's a four-alarm fire, give us money. We now have a budget of whatever it is, you know, $30 million a year. I mean, it's gotta be huge. And you know, the fundraising drive never stops. And so, what happens to an organization like that when you begin to run out of Nazis, well then you gotta, you have to find more, right?
 
Right? And but so, I mean, this is an example, dear to my heart that I flog at every opportunity, the Southern poverty law center is, you know, I think was probably consciously started for the best of intentions operated under the, you know, the, the blindingly brilliant light of, of those intentions for a very long time. But something flipped. And one thing that flipped is that, and it's probably unbeknownst to everybody, there's a bad incentive problem here. I mean, the, the only way they survive as an organization is to continue to stay at, in this sort of long emergency mode of there are Nazis everywhere, right? The everyone, it's like, this is a problem. It's a four-alarm fire, give us money. We now have a budget of whatever it is, you know, $30 million a year. I mean, it's gotta be huge. And you know, the fundraising drive never stops. And so, what happens to an organization like that when you begin to run out of Nazis, well then you gotta, you have to find more, right?
 
Like you can't, you, the incentive is to never recognize that you've gotten a handle on the problem. Right? It'd be like, you know, in some, you know, epidemiological space where, you know, you're curing smallpox, but you could never admit that you've actually cured it. You have to pretend to find smallpox everywhere. Now, I'm not saying obviously I'm not saying white supremacy or white power or anything has been cured, but, but what has happened is you have people who probably were true outliers in their, in their ethical scrupulosity who are now behaving in appalling ways, you know, destroying people's reputations, calling them Nazis when they know they're not Nazis.
Like you can't, you, the incentive is to never recognize that you've gotten a handle on the problem. Right? It'd be like, you know, in some, you know, epidemiological space where, you know, you're curing smallpox, but you could never admit that you've actually cured it. You have to pretend to find smallpox everywhere. Now, I'm not saying obviously I'm not saying white supremacy or white power or anything has been cured, but, but what has happened is you have people who probably were true outliers in their, in their ethical scrupulosity who are now behaving in appalling ways, you know, destroying people's reputations, calling them Nazis when they know they're not Nazis.


'''Eric:'''    00:42:22      Well, let's be, let's put a finer point on it. They are now more likely to let the genie out of the bottle because of their bad behavior or to, you know, huff and puff on an ember that is the pathetic KU Klux Klan of 2019, right? To actually create something that could, it could turn into a roaring fire. I mean, this is a general feature, I often talk about this in terms of magnetic and true North where the angle of declination that separates them is very small at the equator but in Northern Canada it's very large. Right?  
'''Eric:'''    00:42:22      Well, let's be, let's put a finer point on it. They are now more likely to let the genie out of the bottle because of their bad behavior or to, you know, huff and puff on an ember that is the pathetic KU Klux Klan of 2019, right? To actually create something that could, it could turn into a roaring fire. I mean, this is a general feature, I often talk about this in terms of magnetic and true North where the angle of declination that separates them is very small at the equator but in Northern Canada it's very large. Right?  


Sam  And, and at the, at the pole South is everywhere.  
'''Sam''' And, and at the, at the pole South is everywhere.
 
'''Eric'''  Well, that's right. Yeah. Right. And so it's just the problem is, is that the institution, I mean, look, I've made this point elsewhere so a regular listeners will have heard it, but the concept of the embedded growth obligation, the ego of an institution, which is, it has to do work and grow in order to meet its mandates.


Eric  Well, that's right. Yeah. Right. And so it's just the problem is, is that the institution, I mean, look, I've made this point elsewhere so a regular listeners will have heard it, but the concept of the embedded growth obligation, the ego of an institution, which is, it has to do work and grow in order to meet its mandates.
'''Eric:'''    00:43:27      That is the thing that has metastasized throughout our institutional structure. And so, it's not the Southern Poverty Law Center. I mean, that's particularly egregious, but the entire university system, every single measure you can take on that thing, looks like an intergenerational wealth transfer right down to the nondischargeability of student debt and bankruptcy. Well, the loading up of every university by administrators and the monopolization at the moment, almost 100% of our leading institutions are run by a baby boomer whereas the average age, in a different era of a university president, we could have most of them under gen X control and some of them under millennial control, there were university presidents in their thirties who had a huge impact. I mean, that is a system which has gone totally metastatic.
'''Eric:'''    00:43:27      That is the thing that has metastasized throughout our institutional structure. And so, it's not the Southern Poverty Law Center. I mean, that's particularly egregious, but the entire university system, every single measure you can take on that thing, looks like an intergenerational wealth transfer right down to the nondischargeability of student debt and bankruptcy. Well, the loading up of every university by administrators and the monopolization at the moment, almost 100% of our leading institutions are run by a baby boomer whereas the average age, in a different era of a university president, we could have most of them under gen X control and some of them under millennial control, there were university presidents in their thirties who had a huge impact. I mean, that is a system which has gone totally metastatic.


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'''Sam:'''        00:44:34      Yeah. I mean, the way costs have gone up there, you know, way outpacing inflation,  
'''Sam:'''        00:44:34      Yeah. I mean, the way costs have gone up there, you know, way outpacing inflation,  


Eric  Out pacing, medical  
'''Eric'''   Out pacing, medical.
Sam  and, yeah. Yeah. It's, it's amazing. And the fact that you can't discharge your debt in bankruptcy.  
'''Sam'''   and, yeah. Yeah. It's, it's amazing. And the fact that you can't discharge your debt in bankruptcy.  
Eric  It’s perfect.  
'''Eric''' It’s perfect.  


Sam  Yeah. And the fact that, you know, many of our friends who have spent a lot of time complaining about this, but the fact that you have whole fields that are essentially, you know, sham fields, right, that are in the humanities where it's just pseudo knowledge is being imparted to the next generation. And it's, it's not only its own, it's the walled garden of pseudo knowledge, it is a disparagement of real knowledge. Like, so like the, the anti-science, you know, moral panic that is happening in the humanities…
'''Sam''' Yeah. And the fact that, you know, many of our friends who have spent a lot of time complaining about this, but the fact that you have whole fields that are essentially, you know, sham fields, right, that are in the humanities where it's just pseudo knowledge is being imparted to the next generation. And it's, it's not only its own, it's the walled garden of pseudo knowledge, it is a disparagement of real knowledge. Like, so like the, the anti-science, you know, moral panic that is happening in the humanities…


Eric  It is a fit memetic complex.  
'''Eric''' It is a fit memetic complex.  


Sam  Well, it's, apparently, it's fit. It's fit thus far. I mean it's producing new graduates. Yeah.
'''Sam'''   Well, it's, apparently, it's fit. It's fit thus far. I mean it's producing new graduates. Yeah.
 
'''Eric:'''    00:45:27      Well, and it's colonizing things outside of it. I mean the problem with  journalism, tech, human resources, anything which is a high leverage but often poorly paid for the level of intelligence usually required or the amount of training usually required becomes attractive. So, there's a perverse incentive when you can't pay journalists or scientists or even technologists at appropriate levels. I know people will scream, so you have no idea how much money tech people get paid. And I, I really don't believe it. I think that those jobs are supposed to be even better compensated because of large scale tampering in the sector.  


'''Eric:'''    00:45:27      Well, and it's colonizing things outside of it. I mean, journalism, tech, human resources, anything which is a high leverage but often poorly paid for the level of intelligence usually required or the amount of training usually required becomes attractive. So, there's a perverse incentive when you can't pay journalists or scientists or even technologists at appropriate levels. I know people will scream, so you have no idea how much money tech people get paid. And I, I really don't believe it. I think that those jobs are supposed to be even better compensated because of large scale tampering in the sector.
What I believe is, is that we're looking at the difference between truth and fitness. And if you recall when I went first one in your program, I said I care about four things. Truth is one of them, but I also care about meaning, fitness, and grace. This is a great example where fitness is out-competing truth.  
What I believe is, is that we're looking at the difference between truth and fitness. And if you recall when I went first one in your program, I said I care about four things. Truth is one of them, but I also care about meaning, fitness, and grace. This is a great example where fitness is out-competing truth.  


'''Sam:'''        00:46:33      But we have a hand in this so we can tune the landscape, right?  
'''Sam:'''        00:46:33      But we have a hand in this so we can tune the landscape, right?  
Eric  Sometimes I feel like the two of us. Yeah. That's why I call you Sam. What the hell is going on?  
'''Eric''' Sometimes I feel like the two of us. Yeah. That's why I call you Sam. What the hell is going on?  


Same Yes. A relatively small number of people can do it. It's not, it's not, it doesn't take 7 billion people or 8 billion people. No, but like you, you need to convince the top, you know, 3000 people that one way of talking doesn't work. Right. And to, to, to align fitness and truth more faithfully.  
'''Same''' Yes. A relatively small number of people can do it. It's not, it's not, it doesn't take 7 billion people or 8 billion people. No, but like you, you need to convince the top, you know, 3000 people that one way of talking doesn't work. Right. And to, to, to align fitness and truth more faithfully.  
Eric  You know, I mean, I'm not used to disagreeing with you this much.
 
Sam Good. That's why I came here with my alter-ego. Yeah.
'''Eric''' You know, I mean, I'm not used to disagreeing with you this much.
'''Sam''' Good. That's why I came here with my alter-ego. Yeah.


'''Eric:'''    00:47:13      Sam, I think we've screwed up a lot worse than you're imagining in the past. And that that is the fodder for the twin evils of Trumpism and Wokeism.
'''Eric:'''    00:47:13      Sam, I think we've screwed up a lot worse than you're imagining in the past. And that that is the fodder for the twin evils of Trumpism and Wokeism.


'''Sam:'''        00:47:26      But just, just grant me the, the possible sea change effect of the 3000 people, the right 3000 people, fundamentally getting their head straight on, on these issues or any issue, right. Whatever it is. So, you're talking about basically all of Hollywood, all of journalism and all of the science that's public facing.  
'''Sam:'''        00:47:26      But just, just grant me the, the possible sea change effect of the 3000 people, the right 3000 people, fundamentally getting their head straight on, on these issues or any issue, right. Whatever it is. So, you're talking about basically all of Hollywood, all of journalism and all of the science that's public facing.  
Eric  If we could do that.


Sam Yeah.  
'''Eric''' If we could do that.  


Eric  Okay. In some, some thought experiment? Yeah. I guess what my feeling is, first of all is, is that my head is so filled with malware. I've got, I'm running so many nonsensical programs put there by other people that I don't even know are nonsense. Or I can detect  
'''Sam'''  Yeah.
 
'''Eric''' Okay. In some, some thought experiment? Yeah. I guess what my feeling is, first of all is, is that my head is so filled with malware. I've got, I'm running so many nonsensical programs put there by other people that I don't even know are nonsense. Or I can detect...
 
'''Sam'''  you have a sense of what direction to point you're going to find the nonsense. What are you worried about?
 
'''Eric''' well, so we're currently sitting in a room with reflective glass and anechoic tiles that deaden sound. If I echolocate by things that I am absolutely positive would sell newspapers that aren't printed, it's like, okay, you're echolocating and instead of hearing the reflection off of glass, you're hearing a, an absence, which is anechoic tile. And so, if I just look at Google trends, which tells me what people are searching on, if I look at how Google autocompletes, which tells me what they want me to see is what other people are searching on in the search bar. If I look at what stories aren't being run, all of the dead stuff is astounding to me right at the moment.


Sam  you have a sense of what direction to point you're going to find the nonsense. What are you worried about?
Eric well, so we're currently sitting in a room with reflective glass and anechoic tiles that doesn't sound, If I echolocate by things that I am absolutely positive would sell newspapers that aren't printed, it's like, okay, your echolocating and instead of hearing the reflection off of glass, you're hearing a, an absence, which is anechoic tile. And so, if I just look at Google trends, which tells me what people are searching on. If I look at how Google autocompletes, which tells me what they want me to see is what other people are searching on in the search bar. If I look at what stories aren't being run, all of the dead stuff is astounding to me right at the moment.
Like I know for example that people are fascinated by the Jeffrey Epstein story. And in general, like you know, we just had, so normally I don't love talking about current events because it dates the program, but we just had a Kevin Spacey's accuser reported as dying. I don't think that that is likely to be part of some super evil plot to just so people can calibrate. It's not that everything that could make sense because there's an incentive, I chalk up to a conspiracy.  
Like I know for example that people are fascinated by the Jeffrey Epstein story. And in general, like you know, we just had, so normally I don't love talking about current events because it dates the program, but we just had a Kevin Spacey's accuser reported as dying. I don't think that that is likely to be part of some super evil plot to just so people can calibrate. It's not that everything that could make sense because there's an incentive, I chalk up to a conspiracy.  
The Jeffrey Epstein thing is totally different and you and I both met this guy. For 15 years, and he's the only person I've been saying this with conviction about for 15 years, I had one meeting with him, I've said he's a construct. Somebody hired a person probably named Jeffrey Epstein to play a role, super genius mega billionaire philanthropist. I wasn't buying any of it, I've never bought it. And I've talked to everybody in our sort of mutual network and always used one word because I wanted to make a huge bet that when the time came, I would say he was a construct and that I would be revealed to be correct. And that everybody was asked, what do you mean by a construct? Right. Okay.  
The Jeffrey Epstein thing is totally different and you and I both met this guy. For 15 years, and he's the only person I've been saying this with conviction about for 15 years, I had one meeting with him, I've said he's a construct. Somebody hired a person probably named Jeffrey Epstein to play a role, super genius mega billionaire philanthropist. I wasn't buying any of it, I've never bought it. And I've talked to everybody in our sort of mutual network and always used one word because I wanted to make a huge bet that when the time came, I would say he was a construct and that I would be revealed to be correct. And that everybody was asked, what do you mean by a construct? Right. Okay.  
Sam Do you need to have you clarify that on your podcast before?


Eric  Probably not. I, I recorded an entire Jeffrey Epstein episode, which is just me soloing for an hour, but I haven't released it cause I'm terrified. And I've had one ambiguous dinner where somebody sort of quasi threatened me and I wasn't entirely sure what they were saying. It was a little bit creepy.  
'''Sam''' Do you need to have you clarify that on your podcast before?
Sam  Well this is a strand of human complication that you're way more in touch with than I am. I don't deny that it exists. Right. So, like, I think there are real conspiracies and the, and powerful people occasionally, you know, do what, powerful people are occasionally sociopaths and then they, then they do what you would expect or conspired to do what you'd expect. So, I don't have a strong feeling about let's just take the livelihood that Epstein was, was had a facilitated suicide. I think the likelihood that he was murdered is low, but I'll commit suicide. I don't have a strong
 
'''Eric''' Probably not. I, I recorded an entire Jeffrey Epstein episode, which is just me soloing for an hour, but I haven't released it cause I'm terrified. And I've had one ambiguous dinner where somebody sort of quasi threatened me and I wasn't entirely sure what they were saying. It was a little bit creepy.  
 
'''Sam''' Well this is a strand of human complication that you're way more in touch with than I am. I don't deny that it exists. Right. So, like, I think there are real conspiracies and the, and powerful people occasionally, you know, do what, powerful people are occasionally sociopaths and then they, then they do what you would expect or conspired to do what you'd expect. So, I don't have a strong feeling about let's just take the livelihood that Epstein was, was had a facilitated suicide. I think the likelihood that he was murdered is low, but I'll commit suicide. I don't have a strong
 
'''Eric'''  I’m agnostic about that, whether some people stepped away so that he could do the thing that he needed to do, whether there's some vanishing probability that he actually isn't dead. I don't know.
 
'''Sam'''  I put that at very low.
 
'''Eric'''  I put that very low odds as well.
 
'''Sam'''  But you put no, I'm a fan of the …


Eric  I’m agnostic about that, whether some people stepped away so that he could do the thing that he needed to do, whether there's some vanishing probability that he actually isn't dead. I don't know.
'''Eric''' Do you put it at zero odds, Sam?  
Sam  I put that at very low.
 
Eric I put that very low odds as well.
'''Sam''' Well I wouldn't, I know enough about probability to put almost nothing and zero.
Sam  But you put no, I'm a fan of the …
Eric Do you put it at zero odds, Sam?  
Sam  Well I wouldn't, I know enough about probability to put almost nothing and zero.
Eric It’s a huge, huge difference between those people who insist, when I hear somebody insists that that probability be zero, I take it and that person is smart,  
Eric It’s a huge, huge difference between those people who insist, when I hear somebody insists that that probability be zero, I take it and that person is smart,  
Sam  But effectively, effectively zero. I mean zero in the sense that we don't have time to worry about it.


Eric  I wasted no time thinking about it at the moment, but I'm happy to have my Basie and priors tutored.  
'''Sam'''  But effectively, effectively zero. I mean zero in the sense that we don't have time to worry about it.
Sam Right.  
 
Eric  Okay.  
'''Eric''' I wasted no time thinking about it at the moment, but I'm happy to have my Basie and priors tutored.  
 
'''Sam''' Right.  
 
'''Eric''' Okay.  


Sam  So, I just don't have a, I mean, as you know, I'm taking in or, or I utilize this homily that you, you shouldn't describe to, to malice what can be explained by incompetence or whatever that the formulation is.
'''Sam''' So, I just don't have a, I mean, as you know, I'm taking in or, or I utilize this homily that you, you shouldn't describe to, to malice what can be explained by incompetence or whatever that the formulation is.


'''Eric        00:52:10      I find that that's an interesting heuristic for somebody.  
''''''Eric'''         00:52:10      I find that that's an interesting heuristic for somebody.  
Sam  It's, it's usually, I think it's usually true, right? So, like it works much of the time and then it, it fails, but it fails in a case where you get more information and then you update your view.
Sam  It's, it's usually, I think it's usually true, right? So, like it works much of the time and then it, it fails, but it fails in a case where you get more information and then you update your view.


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